Ask ten people in AI when the singularity happens and you'll get ten dates, all suspiciously close to "soon." That alone should raise an eyebrow.

## Exponential curves lie when you're standing on one

If you are inside an exponential curve, every point looks like the knee of the curve. That's not a property of AI — it's a property of exponentials. It's the same illusion that's fooled forecasters in epidemiology, markets, and population growth for a century.

## The physics counter-argument

Intelligence, like every other physical process, runs into rate limits: energy availability, heat dissipation, chip fabrication throughput, and the simple fact that more parameters do not linearly buy more capability forever.

We track the actual leading indicators here — not vibes, not lab press releases — and update this page's "clock" accordingly. Full methodology and the current estimate range are for subscribers.

The AI Singularity Clock — and Why It Keeps Resetting

Exponential curves lie when you're standing on one

The physics counter-argument

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